Air Travel

Question:

hi – does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody under the sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. cu – john

Response:

> hi – > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody under the > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > cu – > john

Chicago is a mess — last week I sat in an airliner that circled the airport for an hour while all the connecting flights for everyone on the plane were taking off down below — everyone had to be rebooked — coming back, the same thing was happening and people were trying to rebook so as to avoid Chicago — I succeeded in routing through Dallas but those heading to Chicago apparently ended up with the same delays

Response:

> hi – > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody under the > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > cu – > john

Considering I just booked four flights into and out of Chicago last week for next week, I am having a problem with the question. Before you buy.

Response:

> hi – > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody under > the > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > cu – > john > Considering I just booked four flights into and out of Chicago last > week for next week, I am having a problem with the question.

Why are you having a problem with the question based on your ability to purchase two weeks in advance?  He didn’t say there were no seats available in advance, but merely that they were full.  I read that to mean full at time of departure, although I seriously doubt ALL flights to/from Chicago are completely full.

Response:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> > hi – > > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody under > the > > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > > cu – > > john > Considering I just booked four flights into and out of Chicago last > week for next week, I am having a problem with the question. > Why are you having a problem with the question based on your ability to > purchase two weeks in advance?  He didn’t say there were no seats available > in advance, but merely that they were full.  I read that to mean full at > time of departure, although I seriously doubt ALL flights to/from Chicago > are completely full.

Then you agree? "completely full" is not your personal experience transiting through Chicago over the past few months or about future flights this month or next?  How many times did Sheryl and ORD bless each others mutual presence this summer? Before you buy.

Response:

>Then you agree? "completely full" is not your personal experience >transiting through Chicago over the past few months or about future >flights this month or next?  How many times did Sheryl and ORD bless >each others mutual presence this summer?

Industry load factors have met or exceeded 80% all summer. This means the majority of flights are sold out…

Response:

> >Then you agree? "completely full" is not your personal experience >transiting through Chicago over the past few months or about future >flights this month or next?  How many times did Sheryl and ORD bless >each others mutual presence this summer? > Industry load factors have met or exceeded 80% all summer. This means the > majority of flights are sold out…

Actually, it doesn’t mean that at all – first, it could mean that as many as 80% of the flights _were_ sold out, if one assumes the remaining were flown empty. Or, and more likely, a number were sold out (oversold even) while many had some, but perhaps very few seats available.  Certainly air travel appears to be heavy to most folks when load factors climb into the 70’s – that’s about the time those empty middles really start to disappear and if its three across, that is basically sold out for that row. As far as future flights being sold out – not through ORD based on my (misfortune) over the next month.  Just had the privilege of changing an itinerary for next week – no fuss no muss – even got an aisle. amp Before you buy.

Response:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> > > hi – > > > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > > > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody > under > > the > > > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > > > cu – > > > john > > Considering I just booked four flights into and out of Chicago last > > week for next week, I am having a problem with the question. > Why are you having a problem with the question based on your ability > to > purchase two weeks in advance?  He didn’t say there were no seats > available > in advance, but merely that they were full.  I read that to mean full > at > time of departure, although I seriously doubt ALL flights to/from > Chicago > are completely full. > Then you agree? "completely full" is not your personal experience > transiting through Chicago over the past few months or about future > flights this month or next?  How many times did Sheryl and ORD bless > each others mutual presence this summer?

My personal experience is that I have purchased, on behalf of others, dozens of flights to/from ORD over the past three years, as recently as two weeks ago.  In recent months, always purchased within two weeks of travel and always able to get the lowest published fare.  Again, he didn’t say that he wasn’t able to purchase a ticket in advance, only that in his experience, flights were departing/arriving full.

Response:

>> Industry load factors have met or exceeded 80% all summer. This means >the > majority of flights are sold out… >Actually, it doesn’t mean that at all – first, it could mean that as >many as 80% of the flights _were_ sold out, if one assumes the >remaining were flown empty.

Actually, it does mean that, or rather it doesn’t directly relate to flights, but seats. That gets mapped into flights. More preceisely, load factors are based on the number of seat miles available. Assume an airline that has 10 aircraft with 100 seats per aircraft and thus 1000 seats flying 1000 miles in a month. Their total load capability is 1,000,000 seat miles. If they have an 80% load factor, they are flying 800,000 seat miles. You can cut that any way you like it, but as you say, they aren’t flying empty airplanes. None the less, up until this summer, it was generally accepted that load factors could not exceed 80%. This is given that weekend and late night flights traditionally sell less than daytime flights. And that certain stations don’t generate 100% loads. United used to have an ORD-CHS-SAV route. Over half the people on that flight would fly from ORD to CHS only. There wasn’t enough CHS originating traffic going to SAV to come anywhere near filling the plane, but because the first leg was so popular, it was difficult to get from ORD to SAV at certain times. It does mean that popular routes at popular times will be 100% full at departure.

Response:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text ->> Industry load factors have met or exceeded 80% all summer. This means >the >> majority of flights are sold out… >Actually, it doesn’t mean that at all – first, it could mean that as >many as 80% of the flights _were_ sold out, if one assumes the >remaining were flown empty. > Actually, it does mean that, or rather it doesn’t directly relate to flights, > but seats. That gets mapped into flights.

The original poster used "flights" as the unit of analysis. > More preceisely, load factors are based on the number of seat miles available. > Assume an airline that has 10 aircraft with 100 seats per aircraft and thus 1000 > seats flying 1000 miles in a month. Their total load capability is 1,000,000 > seat miles. If they have an 80% load factor, they are flying 800,000 seat miles.

One more time – if 100 percent of the seats are occupied for 80 percent of the miles – are there any empty seats flying?  What if 80% of the seats are occupied for 100% of the miles?  Any empty seats flying? What if 99 percent of the seats were occupied for 81% of the miles. What if 90% of the seats were occupied for 90% of the miles? It doesn’t matter how you do the math – 80% is not 100% – and that was the point.  For an average of 80% load factor, not a single flight has to be sold out but not more than 80% can be sold out assuming a certain randomness with regard to seat capacity by plane by distance. But all this aside (and randomness be damned) – Scenario for you :  Suppose you have a 450 passenger 747 flying cross country (3000 miles) at full capacity – you would need 9 B737’s with a 150 passenger capacity each flying 500 miles at 50% to get your 80% average.  In this airline, you have a 80% load factor and a 90% chance of being on a half empty flight.  Aren’t statistics fun? Now, turn it around – 9 737’s flying full for 500 miles and one 747 flying cross country half full.  Still have a 10% chance of a half empty flight – but what’s the chance of a 747 flying cross country half full? Play again? > You can cut that any way you like it, but as you say, they aren’t flying empty > airplanes. None the less, up until this summer, it was generally accepted that > load factors could not exceed 80%. This is given that weekend and late night > flights traditionally sell less than daytime flights.

Generally accepted?  Curiousity killed the cat, but ok,  - by whom? > And that certain stations don’t generate 100% loads. United used to have an > ORD-CHS-SAV route. Over half the people on that flight would fly from ORD to CHS > only. There wasn’t enough CHS originating traffic going to SAV to come anywhere > near filling the plane, but because the first leg was so popular, it was > difficult to get from ORD to SAV at certain times. > It does mean that popular routes at popular times will be 100% full at > departure.

No doubt that this is the observation, but to have an 80% load factor number does not require the "…majority of flights to be sold out". amp Before you buy.

Response:

– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> > > > hi – > > > > does anybody have a clue why flights from and to Chicago have been > > > > completely full for months? o.k. – flying got cheap so everbody > under > > > the > > > > sun is on an airplane, but *this* is weird. > > > > cu – > > > > john > > > Considering I just booked four flights into and out of Chicago last > > > week for next week, I am having a problem with the question. > > Why are you having a problem with the question based on your ability > to > > purchase two weeks in advance?  He didn’t say there were no seats > available > > in advance, but merely that they were full.  I read that to mean full > at > > time of departure, although I seriously doubt ALL flights to/from > Chicago > > are completely full. > Then you agree? "completely full" is not your personal experience > transiting through Chicago over the past few months or about future > flights this month or next?  How many times did Sheryl and ORD bless > each others mutual presence this summer? > My personal experience is that I have purchased, on behalf of others, dozens > of flights to/from ORD over the past three years, as recently as two weeks > ago.  In recent months, always purchased within two weeks of travel and > always able to get the lowest published fare.  Again, he didn’t say that he > wasn’t able to purchase a ticket in advance, only that in his experience, > flights were departing/arriving full.

I see – so you haven’t been on a flight to or from Chicago in the past few months.  OK, never mind. amp Before you buy.

Response: